Hurricane Erin, the first major storm of the 2025 Atlantic season, has already made headlines with its power and speed. Forming near the coast of Africa on August 11, Erin rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane before weakening slightly to a strong Category 4. At its peak, sustained winds topped 155 mph, making it one of the most powerful early-season storms in recent memory.
Though Erin is not forecast to make landfall in Florida, the system remains large enough to affect coastal areas. For Boca Raton and much of South Florida, the main concern is in the water rather than the sky. By midweek, residents can expect surf heights of 4 to 6 feet, with some waves reaching up to 8 feet, creating dangerous rip currents and hazardous swimming conditions. While winds and rain should remain offshore, beachgoers and boaters are urged to exercise extreme caution.
An Active Season Ahead
Erin is a reminder that the 2025 hurricane season is far from over—and may in fact be one of the more active seasons in recent years. Forecasters predict above-average activity this year, with estimates calling for between 13 and 18 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and as many as 5 major hurricanes.
Colorado State University, one of the most closely watched forecasting centers, has projected around 16 storms, with 8 expected to strengthen into hurricanes and at least 3 reaching major Category 3 status or higher. While these are just forecasts, the consensus among meteorologists is that warm ocean waters and favorable atmospheric conditions will keep storm risks elevated well into the fall.
Boca Raton’s Risk
Historically, the east coast of Florida faces a lower direct landfall probability than the Gulf Coast or northern parts of the state, but the risk is never zero. Statistically, Florida has more than a 90% chance of experiencing at least some impact from tropical activity in any given year, whether from outer rain bands, storm surge, or coastal flooding.
For Boca Raton, the greatest threats often come from late-season storms in September and October, when tropical systems curve westward across the Atlantic before turning north toward the Southeast coast. Even a glancing blow can bring significant rain, flooding, and power outages.
Preparedness is Key
Hurricane Erin’s near miss should be seen as a warning rather than a relief. Residents are encouraged to review their hurricane kits, ensure emergency supplies are stocked, and stay connected to local alerts. Those living near the coast should also have an evacuation plan in place, even if forecasts suggest storms will remain offshore.
Bottom Line
Hurricane Erin may not strike Boca Raton directly, but its powerful waves and rapid intensification serve as a clear signal: the 2025 hurricane season is active, and the peak is just beginning. Staying prepared now could make all the difference if another storm sets its sights closer to home.
Harlan Kilstein has been a Boca Resident since 1997. He know the ins and out of Boca
